Austin Mock's model ranks the top 25 college football teams (2024)

Fall camp for the overwhelming majority of college football teams is just a week away, and we are officially just a month away from live-action football on our screens. In August, teams will take the first step toward making the newly expanded 12-team College Football Playoff. More teams making the postseason means a wider championship-contending field than ever before.

So who is the best of the best? Let’s rank them.

I use play-by-play data to make a projection for each college football team. The projections are not only made up of box score statistics but also returning production, recruiting rankings and transfers. These projections aren’t who the model believes is most likely to win the national championship or make the playoff — more on those in the coming weeks — but instead an overall power ranking. Using the outputs of this model, I’ve built an algorithm to simulate every game of the season 100,000 times to get projected win totals as well as conference title odds for every college football team.

Before we get to the rankings, I should note that the difference between rankings is not equal. For example, the rankings from 20-25 in the model are much different than one to five. As we all know, there are tiers in college football, and my model is fully aware of that, too.

2024 college football preseason top 25

The Power 2?

The Big Ten and SEC have 12 of the top 13 teams. Notre Dame is the lone wolf in the elite programs of college football before a run of Utah, Kansas State and Florida State gives the Big 12 and ACC some representation.

Runner-up dropoff again

For the second year in a row, the national title game runner-up is not ranked in the top 25. Washington is 41st in my model. TCU was ranked 26th heading into last season before going 5-7.

Top 25 teams by conference

• SEC: 9
• Big Ten: 5
• Big 12: 5
• ACC: 5
• Independent: 1

A big three and the rest

My model has a bit of a gap between No. 3 Oregon and No. 4 Texas. It’s no surprise that Georgia and Ohio State find themselves as elite programs, but Oregon is in new territory here. I’m a little skeptical of how the Ducks will transition to the Big Ten and the cross-country travel, but Dan Lanning’s squad has talent up and down the roster and was one of the best teams in the country last season. Replacing Bo Nix may seem like a big hurdle, but grabbing Heisman Trophy-favorite Dillon Gabriel in the transfer portal should keep Oregon as one of the premier offenses in college football.

Alabama is still top five after Nick Saban

Nick Saban is the GOAT of college football and I’m not sure we will see another run like he had with the Crimson Tide. So you’d naturally expect Alabama to drop a little, right? Not exactly. Kalen DeBoer comes over from Washington and he’s been one of the best college coaches for the last decade. He’s 104-12 in his career as a head coach, and while this will be his toughest task yet, I’m confident he will keep Alabama as one of the top programs in the SEC. Will he match Saban? Unlikely. But holding him to the standard of the greatest of all time is unfair. Alabama will be fine.

Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss ready to arrive?

This year’s Ole Miss team will be the best of Kiffin’s tenure and the expectations will match it. Kiffin has had an up-and-down coaching career, but he’s coming off arguably his best season, and I think the Rebels might have more talent this season. Can I trust Kiffin and this Ole Miss team to compete against the elite teams? The jury is still out on that, but a favorable schedule will surely have Ole Miss in the College Football Playoff conversation all season long.

Team capsules

1. Georgia

• 2024 projected wins: 10.4
• Conference title: 38.1%
• Last year’s record: 13-1

2. Ohio State

• 2024 projected wins: 10.5
• Conference title: 40%
• Last year’s record: 11-2

3. Oregon

• 2024 projected wins: 10.1
• Conference title: 31.6%
• Last year’s record: 12-2

4. Texas

• 2024 projected wins: 9.7
• Conference title: 24.1%
• Last year’s record: 12-2

5. Alabama

• 2024 projected wins: 8.9
• Conference title: 7.3%
• Last year’s record: 12-2

6. LSU

• 2024 projected wins: 9
• Conference title: 8.1%
• Last year’s record: 10-3

7. Ole Miss

• 2024 projected wins: 9.1
• Conference title: 7%
• Last year’s record: 11-2

8. Penn State

• 2024 projected wins: 9.5
• Conference title: 13.2%
• Last year’s record: 10-3

9. Notre Dame

• 2024 projected wins: 9.4
• Last year’s record: 10-3

10. Texas A&M

• 2024 projected wins: 8.7
• Conference title: 5.9%
• Last year’s record: 7-6

11. Missouri

• 2024 projected wins: 9.1
• Conference title: 4.9%
• Last year’s record: 11-2

12. Michigan

• 2024 projected wins: 8.9
• Conference title: 10.7%
• Last year’s record: 15-0

13. Oklahoma

• 2024 projected wins: 7.9
• Conference title: 1.6%
• Last year’s record: 10-3

14. Utah

• 2024 projected wins: 9.2
• Conference title: 32.6%
• Last year’s record: 8-5

15. Kansas State

• 2024 projected wins: 9.2
• Conference title: 30.9%
• Last year’s record: 9-4

16. Florida State

• 2024 projected wins: 8.9
• Conference title: 26.5%
• Last year’s record: 13-1

17. Tennessee

• 2024 projected wins: 8.3
• Conference title: 2.5%
• Last year’s record: 9-4

18. Oklahoma State

• 2024 projected wins: 8.6
• Conference title: 9%
• Last year’s record: 10-4

19. Clemson

• 2024 projected wins: 8.2
• Conference title: 17.1%
• Last year’s record: 9-4

20. USC

• 2024 projected wins: 6.9
• Conference title: 1.6%
• Last year’s record: 8-5

21. Arizona

• 2024 projected wins: 7.9
• Conference title: 8.8%
• Last year’s record: 10-3

22. Miami

• 2024 projected wins: 8.5
• Conference title: 10.9%
• Last year’s record: 7-6

23. Kansas

• 2024 projected wins: 7.7
• Conference title: 3.3%
• Last year’s record: 9-4

24. Virginia Tech

• 2024 projected wins: 8.5
• Conference title: 10.6%
• Last year’s record: 7-6

25. Louisville

• 2024 projected wins: 7.9
• Conference title: 11.8%
• Last year’s record: 10-4

(Photo of Tez Johnson: Christian Petersen / Getty Images)

Austin Mock uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and rate performances in the NFL, college football, MLB and other sports. Follow Austin on Twitter @amock419